Way too warming

• At this most critical stage of the climate emergency, Melbourne Airport is proposing that its flight emissions increase by 55% (9)

• Total annual warming from Third Runway flights in 2046 will be around 12.9 million tonnes CO2-e (10) — two thirds of the 18 million tonnes CO2-e total annual warming from Australia’s dirtiest power station, AGL Energy Limited’s Loy Yang (11)

• This is roughly 16 times the CO2-e acknowledged by Melbourne Airport — ~0.350 million tonnes (12)

• Construction emissions will be 422,094 tonnes CO2-e for the Third Runway, including 149,571 tonnes CO2-e from the concrete used (13)

• Cumulative warming emissions total around 40 million tonnes CO2-e from the Third Runway out to 2046 (14)

• Third Runway enabled flights will not be emissions free. Electric aircraft, for flights under 1,000 km, may be in service by 2050, but they won’t be emissions free until the electric grid is fully decarbonised (15)

• Alternative aviation fuels are not emissions free and emissions free flight is not possible in the near term (15)

• Offsetting flight emissions does not reduce aviation emissions (15)

• Climate Action 100+, the world’s largest investor engagement initiative on climate change, in their updated Aviation Sector Strategy report drawing on IEA analysis, say that growth in air travel needs to be curtailed in order to keep the planet on track for no more than 1.5°C of global warming. The IEA’s 1.5°C scenario notes the necessity of keeping business travel to 2019 levels, capping long-haul flights of more than 6 hours for leisure reasons at 2019 levels, and shifting demand to high-speed rail infrastructure where possible.

• The IEA says we must stop developing new emissions sources (6), such as new runway-enabled flight numbers.

• Governments around the world agree we should avoid more than 1.5ºC of warming, now inevitable from emissions to date (1).

• Our own federal government says it is aiming for emissions cuts of 26-28% by 2030, and most Australians are calling for more significant cuts (7)

• Lord Deben, the chair of the UK Climate Change Committee, which advises government, said in January 2022: “There is not any space for airport expansion” (8)

 • Wishing we weren’t won’t get us to safety. Denying and ignoring the harmful consequences of our actions, like building a new runway, won’t prevent them. Just as we observe Total Fire Bans to minimise bushfire emergencies during fire season, so we must observe Total Runway Expansion Bans to minimise global heating during the climate emergency (1).

• 1.5ºC of warming is now likely by 2030. And 2ºC of warming is now likely before 2050 (2)

• Right now the Great Barrier Reef is in its death spiral and other tipping points to unstoppable warming are at hand (3)

• Aviation is the most emissions intensive form of transport, per kilometre and per hour.   

• Aviation is the world’s fastest growing source of climate breakdown emissions, growing by ~4% a year whilst other sectors continue to decarbonise (4), due to the record growth in flights (5)

• A Third Runway is incompatible with our Paris commitments, with Melbourne Airport investor ESG management guidelines, and with Melbourne Airport’s Take2 pledge.